Newest Country and Sector Risk assessment 2023 Q2
LOST ILLUSIONS AND GREAT EXPECTATIONS IN COFACE BAROMETER FOR Q2-2023
The year 2023 began with great enthusiasm, but in all likelihood it will not be the year that most observers were expecting. The 1st half of the year has reinforced some of our convictions:
- no, inflation will not spontaneously and painlessly return to its 2% target in developed countries;
- no, central banks will not "pivot" between now and the end of the year;
- and no,the mere lifting of health restrictions will not enable China to play the role of relay engine for the global economy.
Two essential things that the market had lost sight of also came back to the fore: access to abundant, cheap energy remains central to the functioning of the global economic system, and monetary policy has more direct effects on asset valuations and financial stability than on consumer prices.
The economic outlook remains closely linked to inflation trends and to the response of central banks, and our forecasts are subject to a number of downside risks, including the supply of energy and credit.
Against this backdrop, Coface made 13 upgrades and 2 downgrades revisions to its country assessments, as well as 26 changes to its sector ratings (13 reclassifications and 13 downgrades). These underline an improvement in the outlook, but an environment that remains very demanding and uncertain.
Read more: Coface Barometer for Q2-2023: Lost illusions and great expectations
SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT INFOGRAPHICS Q2-2023
Coface's assessments of 13 major global sectors are based on more than 75 years of expertise and on the financial data published by listed companies from 6 geographical sectors.
Our methodology is based on 8 criteria integrated in three main pillars:
- Coface’s expertise and payment experience data,
- External financial data forecasts (quantiles),
- Multifactorial key items (commodities price forecasts, structural changes, Coface country risk assessment).
In a context that we explain in our barometer, Coface has made 26 changes to sector ratings: 13 reclassifications and 13 downgrades.
Find out which sectors in which regions are affected in our sector risk infographic. Download it below and go deeper with our full Sectors risk analyses.
Read more: infographics of Coface's Sector risk assessment Q2-2023
COUNTRY RISKS ASSESSMENT MAP Q2-2023
Coface made 13 upgrades and 2 downgrades revisions to its country assessments, which underline an improvement in the outlook, but an environment that remains very demanding and uncertain.
Check our full Barometer to understand why we changed them and what are our forecasts for the rest of the year. And check out our Country risk assessments in detail and for free.
Read more: Map of Coface's Country Risks Assessments Q2-2023